Almost every week we try to share some thoughts on either the markets or a relevant topic in financial planning. Sometimes we're prescient, sometimes we're wrong. Sometimes we draw a conclusion, sometimes we leave the conclusion up to you. Regardless, we always hope you enjoy the content and find it helpful. We certainly welcome your feedback at any time. Thanks for reading!
Wednesday, September 21, 2022
Welcome to the last week of summer. Autumn officially starts this Thursday. As the days are getting shorter in the northern hemisphere and a major dose of needed rain coming to California, things in the Northwest certainly shifted...
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Monday, September 12, 2022
I have to be honest – my head is spinning. I’m not sure if it’s from breathing in too many smoke particulates over the weekend or the extreme sentiments we are seeing in the markets .I’m going to go with market...
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Wednesday, September 7, 2022
We're going to try to demystify Home Equity Lines of Credit, giving you a better understanding of what they are, how they work, and when they should be used (and when they should be avoided). Is this source of liquidity right for you?
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Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Jerome Powell vs. The Global Economy. At about the same time many of you were waking up on Friday morning, Fed Chair Powell woke the markets up in a big way with a very ‘hawkish’ speech from Jackson Hole in which he tried to...
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Tuesday, August 23, 2022
This is a big week for the economic movers and shakers as they convene in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. For the 22nd consecutive year, my invitation has been lost. Then again, maybe my criticism of the Federal Reserve is enough to keep me off...
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Monday, August 15, 2022
Before we get into our regularly scheduled discussion about the world of finance, I have to tell you that I have a new item on my bucket list. Last year was the first year there was a Major League Baseball game played in the state of...
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Monday, August 8, 2022
The above headline was from NPR yesterday when the bill passed. The bill is called: Inflation Reduction Act. Now, I don’t mean to point out the obvious, but how does spending reduce inflation? So let me try to understand this....
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Monday, August 1, 2022
This week we’ll keep it short and sweet, quickly following-up on what we wrote last week. If you remember last week’s blog, we mentioned that it was a big week for corporate earnings (4 out 5 largest companies reporting)...
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Monday, July 25, 2022
As if 4 out of the 5 largest companies in the US reporting earnings this week wasn’t enough, we have arguably the MOST consequential FED meeting of the year.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2022
Why stay invested for the long-term? Why invest in nascent technologies where valuations have been ripped to shreds? What good will come from this entire pandemic ordeal? Wait, why drop that last question in there? Do I really want to...
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
If you have been reading my weekly piece, you will know that we spend a lot of time discussing what the FED will do. Raise rates, cut rates, QE, QT, grow the balance sheet, shrink the balance sheet. Believe me, we don’t talk about...
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Wednesday, July 6, 2022
We hope you had a great Independence Day. Whatever your opinions of the state of the union, I hope we’ll all agree we are fortunate to call the USA our home.We’ll keep today’s post relatively brief. Yes, we’re...
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Monday, June 27, 2022
As a frequent reader of this blog, you know that I am no fan of the Federal Reserve. You know, that “independent” financial arm, sandwiched between the US government and the large financial companies. Its mission is to...
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Tuesday, June 21, 2022
We’ve been making our opinions known in this letter for years, as well as conversations with clients for even longer. “Free money” isn’t free and there are consequences for past decisions. I know that’s not...
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Tuesday, June 14, 2022
Good thing we did away with the word ‘Transitory’, because the Federal Reserve was starting to look a bit foolish. “Ok, from now on, let’s pretend we never used the word transitory.” And if anyone does,...
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Monday, June 6, 2022
This time last year, an incredible amount of airtime was being given to the novel Long-term Care tax that was set to take effect here in Washington State at the start of 2022. Many of you (and me) were scrambling to understand the new...
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Tuesday, May 31, 2022
We hope you had a wonderful Memorial Day weekend. As we mentioned in closing last week, we hope we individually and collectively never forget what the day stands for and embrace the freedoms those sacrifices have afforded us. As we now...
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Thursday, May 26, 2022
During times like this when markets (both stocks and bonds) are falling at historic rates, interest rates are spiking, and the economy is on uncertain footing – we field a lot of questions about what’s next. What’s...
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Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Mr. Market loves to forecast a recession. This time is no different. But not every time the market thinks there will be a recession, there actually is one. So, is it possible that the market is overly pessimistic about the economy?...
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Tuesday, May 3, 2022
As we look forward to the FED meeting on Wednesday, the evidence continues to build that the economy is in a precarious position. High inflation, slowing growth, rising interest rates, and low unemployment. Something must give.Slowing...
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Monday, April 18, 2022
We hope you had a wonderful Easter weekend. Perhaps you found the golden egg stuffed with a mere $5 trillion. Oh wait, numbers that size are reserved for the purview of the FED. As I mentioned last week, the Federal Reserve has put...
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Tuesday, April 12, 2022
As they say, at some point we’re talking real money. I guess now we should say a trillion here and a trillion there. At any rate, we’ve shown you this chart before, but let’s focus on this again. $9 trillion dollars...
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Tuesday, April 5, 2022
Designating beneficiaries on your retirement and HSA accounts is something most of us do when we establish the account, but then never think about again. Here we'll look at why a periodic review may be warranted and how to think about these
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Wednesday, March 30, 2022
On a completely non-investment related topic, it appears that ratings for this past weekend’s Oscars’ will be up from last year! Let’s ignore that last year’s show celebrated a year when no movies were...
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Tuesday, March 22, 2022
This past Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded their second meeting of the year and raised rates for the first time since 2018. They raised rates by 1/4 point (or 25 basis points) and indicated that they could raise rates every...
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Monday, March 14, 2022
War rages on in Ukraine. I have a good friend from Ukraine (he lives in the US now). His wife recently joined him here in the States as well. With this connection, I have been seeing things that most don’t see on the news....
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Thursday, March 3, 2022
Russia has been moving assets to the Ukraine border since last year, so it’s been no secret that an invasion was a possibility. Of course, most of us being optimists, we had hoped that diplomacy would win out. And then,...
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
With housing prices rapidly appreciating, more sellers are faced with the potential of owing capital gains taxes upon sale. While paying taxes inherently means you made money, which is never a bad thing - it's also never a bad thing to...
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Monday, February 14, 2022
It’s Valentine’s Day. We’re confident you didn’t open this blog in search of relationship advice, so we’ll stick to the script and draw your attention again to inflation.As the markets continue to focus on...
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Wednesday, February 2, 2022
The old saying, ‘As January goes, so goes the market’ may be a harbinger of things to come this year in the markets. Let’s just say that the market was rough the first month of 2022, so if the old adage is true, it...
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Thursday, January 27, 2022
The Federal Reserve just had their first meeting of 2022 yesterday and there weren’t many new insights. Here’s what we know. Unemployment is back to levels seen pre-pandemic. Even unemployment for those without a high...
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Monday, January 10, 2022
Happy New Year! I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and are looking forward to 2022 with great hope. No doubt the word “challenging” has seen its day in the sun for the past two years, but we all still have so much to...
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
This time of year, we spend a lot of time talking about what we’re thankful for. Gratitude is an incredible practice and I love reflecting on all that I have to be thankful for. The list is long, and this year included many of...
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Monday, December 13, 2021
In the world of economics, you’re only as good as your last prediction (or press conference) (and it is a field of prognosticators). If you remember, FED Chair Jerome Powell in his last press conference wanted to remake his image...
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Thursday, December 2, 2021
If anyone was paying attention to the market instead of Black Friday sales, you might have seen a big sell off. The Dow Jones Industrials were down over 1000 points at one point, to eventually close down 800 points. 1000 points sounds...
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
We’re going to start today with a few comments on inflation – again. It seems to be more than a “transitory” topic in our blog these days (with a 6.2% print today that marks the largest 12-mo increase since...
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Monday, October 25, 2021
We have spoken about this many times over the past year and now let’s try to update where we are at in relation to inflation. That is clearly a bad look at inflation. But let’s take a look at the components of inflation. Do...
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Monday, October 18, 2021
Tis the season…for giving! Yes, we all like to receive – but I know many of you find even more joy in giving. While you may already be busy buying those gifts for under the Christmas tree (with all of the horror stories of...
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Thursday, October 7, 2021
As we head into the 4th quarter and another year quickly appears in the rearview mirror, it’s time to remind all of us that volatility is the norm, not the exception. We just finished a long run of no correction in the markets of...
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Tuesday, September 28, 2021
“Skate to where the puck will be” is a great quote from hockey legend Wayne Gretzky. It’s as true in hockey as it is in the markets or life in general. Many times in the past we’ve said, if you invest based on...
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Monday, September 20, 2021
One of my favorite quotes from Warren Buffett is “You never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.” At this point it appears that China’s Evergrande Group has been swimming naked and now the tide has...
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Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Ok, we knew what the answer was long ago, but now we see it all laid out. To pay for the new $3.5T “human infrastructure” spending, House Democrats have proposed significant changes to the tax code. Some of the headline...
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Tuesday, September 7, 2021
Let’s start by stating the obvious. College is expensive. Shoot, just picking a college these days can be a five-figure affair, with in-person visits to multiple campuses seemingly becoming the norm. Let’s continue by...
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Monday, August 30, 2021
This weekend is Labor Day weekend and officially the end of summer in the markets. As such, I’m assuming that many will not read this because you are squeezing in the last bit of fun before the kids go to school and the days get...
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Tuesday, August 24, 2021
No, not talking about Noah building a small boat. I’m talking about a huge war (in financial terms) building between market heavyweights. If you haven’t seen the movie watch ‘The Big Short.’ One of the main...
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Tuesday, August 17, 2021
Jeff and I have a little bet between us. Over or under, when will the FED start raising interest rates? Jeff took the over, I took the under – with the push being 3Q-2022. Why is that important? It’s not really, other than...
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Monday, August 9, 2021
I recently had a conversation with someone who had been told by a relative that they “need” a Revocable Living Trust (“RLT”). This person wanted to gather my opinion – and is often the case in this...
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Wednesday, August 4, 2021
If you wonder why we don’t lend much weight to the day-to-day swings in the markets, notice the circle in the chart below. The S&P 500 was down 69 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial average was down 700 points. Both charts look...
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Monday, July 26, 2021
The Olympics commenced last week. They are different this year, for sure – but the joy of watching people who are the best in the world at what they do is nonetheless both fun and inspiring (and humbling, if we’re...
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Monday, July 19, 2021
A week ago, it was a fear of inflation. Now it’s fear of deflation and another lockdown. The “reopening” stocks are getting clobbered, and money is flowing into “safe” assets like Treasuries. We talked...
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Monday, July 12, 2021
$1.35 trillion. In today’s world of stimulus packages, even this number has not been relegated to irrelevancy. It’s big. So you may wonder, “What does it represent?” According to recent research by Captialize,...
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Tuesday, July 6, 2021
Seems like every time you turn around, there is a story about how investors are worried and nervous. Worried that valuations are too high and the market is ready to fall, and therefore don’t know what to do with long-term savings...
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Monday, June 28, 2021
Are we finally there, or is it a mirage? As you likely know, the West Coast has been amongst the last to remove restrictions and return to “normal.” However, we’re almost there, as California actually...
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Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Inflation is what I am talking about today. Many questions we get are regarding inflation and whether it is truly transitory in nature or longer lasting (like the 70’s). Let’s get one thing out of the way first. We will not...
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Monday, June 7, 2021
I ran across a couple things over the weekend and thought they would make a nice addition to our weekly piece. Many of you are accustomed to us discussing the “markets,” but of course that usually just references the...
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Tuesday, June 1, 2021
Nearly two years ago, we published a piece on a newly passed piece of legislation here in Washington called the “Long-term Care Trust Act” (now called the “WA Cares Fund”). I am sure you all remember it fondly...
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Monday, May 24, 2021
A (long) year ago we were just getting ready for the second wave of COVID-19, had just started to figure out what effects it would have on all of us, and had begun (perhaps prematurely) dreaming about how to move forward in our new...
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Monday, May 3, 2021
Just over a week ago, in the waning hours of the 2021 legislative session, the Washington State House and Senate passed a capital gains tax bill. This is a first of its kind here in Washington. As expected, this has already found a...
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Friday, April 30, 2021
Yesterday we looked at capital gains taxes broadly. We saw what they are, why they have historically received preferential treatment, and how the current rates relate to ordinary income tax rates. As we saw, the often quoted 15% rate...
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Thursday, April 29, 2021
Capital gains taxes have been at the fore in the news lately, both at the federal and state level. This has generated plenty of questions, and when plenty of questions arise, we know that it’s time to put together a thorough,...
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Monday, April 26, 2021
Last week we discussed valuation and how high prices in the markets are. We have also talked about input prices like lumber and copper. This week I would like to take you further down the road (pun intended). Before we continue,...
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Like Yogi Berra said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. The talking heads on CNBC will make many predictions (most about the future) and of those a small handful will turn out to be correct. Of course, they won’t...
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Monday, April 12, 2021
We have all heard the stats. As COVID has wreaked havoc over the past year, the personal savings rate in the US has spiked – so much so that it hit record levels in 2020. Historically, according to JP Morgan, Americans tend to...
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Monday, March 29, 2021
After a week away from writing, let’s just take a quick look at two topics that have been on my mind of late (aside from a desire for more sun). To get us started, let me introduce you to Cathie Wood, the CEO and CIO of ARK...
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Normally I have view I want to get across, and today will be no different 😊. Last week I heard from many people that they liked Andrew’s blog and I think most of them thought I should step up my game…or let Andrew write...
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Monday, March 8, 2021
A few weeks ago, I put together a piece on refinancing your mortgage that I planned to use for this month’s financial planning briefing. At that point, interest rates were at record lows – with some clients getting quoted...
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Monday, February 22, 2021
I would like to walk through some inflation indicators that we keep an eye on. Some of these you’ve may have seen before and others may have slipped past you (we hope you have more to concern yourself with than inflation data!)....
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Monday, February 8, 2021
We consider ourselves to be pretty fun here at Madison Park. We don’t take ourselves too seriously, though we take our work very seriously. While we all like to focus on the fun and enjoyable topics like making money, growing our...
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Monday, February 1, 2021
I don’t want to get into too much detail about the war between a hedge fund (Melvin Capital) and the Reddit users #wallstreetbets. It’s been written about plenty, and we invite you to reach out if you want some help...
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
This is the last week of January and we will see what our January effect says about 2021. If the markets don’t fall apart for the rest of the week, that would bode well for the rest of the year. But does that mean it is always...
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Tuesday, January 19, 2021
There are two rules of thumb as it relates to a new year in the stock market. As the first week of January goes, so goes the market. As the month of January goes, so goes the market. With the first week in the books, let’s see...
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Monday, January 11, 2021
In the past, we have occasionally interrupted our regularly scheduled programming (read: market commentary) with financial planning thoughts. This year, we’re going to make that a more regular occurrence, committing to using at...
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Monday, December 28, 2020
As we come into the last week of the year, many traders have made their year-end adjustments and the stimulus bill was signed (finally), leaving us now to just hope that there are no (proverbial) fireworks planned for the end of the...
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Yesterday was officially the shortest day of the year, which means, of course, the days will be getting longer for the next six months…and Santa will be coming in a few short days. Regarding the former, I think we’re all...
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Tuesday, December 8, 2020
The first day of winter is coming up in a couple weeks, but Wave 3 of COVID is well under way and shows few signs of relenting here in the US. I don’t want to talk too much about that, aside from saying that there will likely...
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Tuesday, December 1, 2020
First off, I hope you had a good Thanksgiving. Even though many families were not able to gather in person, hopefully you were able to see your loved ones (or perhaps you enjoyed the reprieve…I’ll leave that to you). I...
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
We would like to start off by wishing everyone a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. This is going to be a different Thanksgiving than we’ve had in the past, but let’s all make the best of it. Sales of Ibuprofen may be down,...
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Monday, November 16, 2020
If I dare say, the elections are behind us and we appear to have a new president starting on January 20th. The only thing left is to figure out control of the Senate, which appears to be leaning red at this time. As we said last week,...
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Monday, November 9, 2020
We would like to pat ourselves on the back for singlehandedly getting out the vote message... Ok, just kidding but nearly 150 million people voted in this election, the most ever! This level of participation and engagement is...
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Monday, November 2, 2020
Historically speaking, the six months from May 1st to October 31st re the weakest for the markets, while November 1st to April 30th are the strongest. We come off a year where the markets had the fastest move from a new all-time high...
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Tuesday, October 27, 2020
As many of you know, we are big fans of innovation, with the thought that companies that don’t innovate and keep up with the change in technology are doomed to be run over by smaller more nimbler ones. We have seen that happen...
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Monday, October 19, 2020
With only two weeks left before the election, many people are trying to get a feel for what will happen once it’s done. Of course, without knowing the outcome ahead of time, we are only making educated guesses. If I go back to...
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Monday, October 12, 2020
The FED says there needs to be more fiscal stimulus. The Democrats want $2.2 trillion in fiscal stimulus and the Republicans want $1.8 trillion in stimulus (at least these are the latest numbers being offered). Who says the politicians...
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Monday, September 21, 2020
Historically September is the worst performing month of the year, although October usually sees the culmination of the pullback and the exhaustion of selling. So, we’re in September and sure enough we are getting a round of...
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Tuesday, September 1, 2020
Is it a bubble? Is it not a bubble? Regardless of how you want to phrase it, the parabolic move upwards since March for a handful of stocks is concerning. I’m not condoning this bubble/not a bubble that is now being blown, but I...
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Monday, August 24, 2020
For those of you that have never heard me say it, where have you been? For those that have heard me say it, welcome to Groundhog’s Day. Many times over the course of the last 20 years, I have said that if the only tool you have...
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Tuesday, August 18, 2020
As we are all aware, the economy has changed substantially over the past six months. Many businesses and industries have stumbled and many have closed all together, many of which are in an area of the economy that had previously proven...
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Let’s take a look at a couple new charts and a couple oldie but goodies. Maybe we can see if anything behind the scenes is changing and potentially look into our future. Our first chart is the Federal Debt held by the public as a...
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Monday, August 3, 2020
We’ve mentioned Robinhood before, but there doesn’t seem to be any stopping millennial traders from piling into “story” stocks. We spoke about many companies in the past, most notably some of the airlines and...
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Monday, July 27, 2020
No rants this week, just right into a couple topics that are or will be important over the next few years. I know, everybody is a long-term investor, but nobody looks out more than a few months. Like we have said so many times before,...
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Monday, July 20, 2020
The hardest part about investing is we as humans are in the here and now, and the markets are looking out 6-9 months in the future. If we as investors are looking at the newspaper (digital or print), we are reading yesterday’s...
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Monday, July 6, 2020
We hope you all had a wonderful 4th of July! I certainly did, despite being unable to take my mind off the markets for any extended period of time. I wanted to take today’s update as a chance to explore a couple of major market...
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
We’ve talked many times about whether the glass is half full or half empty. Of course, it usually depends on your general outlook and disposition, as well as what industries you are viewing. Big corporations that haven’t...
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Monday, June 22, 2020
We have talked about valuations in the past. What you pay for something matters, especially when you rely on that something to provide future growth. Given all that we’ve been through over the past few months, I thought it would...
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Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Some have noted our recent updates have been wanting for a crystal ball. No predictions of what the markets will do next week, next month, or next year. That’s kind of been the point. We have instead been presenting interesting...
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Monday, June 8, 2020
Before we get into the markets, we want to pause for a second and say something that is sad to even have to print: “We stand against racism. We stand for justice. We stand firm in the belief that all persons are created equal,...
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Do you remember the movie Back to the Future, with Michael J. Fox? For those that have been in a cave for 35 years, it was a movie about going back in time (first just to see if it could be done), with the help of Doc – a man who...
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Almost four months from the “first” known case of COVID-19 in the United States (more on that in a minute), let’s take a look at where the virus is now and look at the “curve”. As you can see in the charts...
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Monday, May 11, 2020
First, a belated Mother’s Day to all of you moms out there. We hope your day was special, even if it was kept distant from those that call you mom. I (Andrew) know that the isolation hit home when my 3-yr old sweetly moaned,...
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Monday, May 4, 2020
Our title today is one of Warren Buffett’s favorite sayings. Another is ‘you never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.’ We are in the middle of the mother of all low tides right now. Berkshire...
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Tuesday, April 28, 2020
The song from David Essex poses a good question. More importantly, is there a clear way? As usual, I will show you some charts to get a perspective on what is going on. If you now have that song stuck in your head, mission...
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Monday, April 13, 2020
Definition of money (according to Merriam-Webster) something generally accepted as a medium of exchange, a measure of value, or a means of payment I can generally agree with that definition, but let’s dig in a bit further....
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Monday, April 6, 2020
With Q1 now behind us – at least in calendar terms, it might take longer psychologically – we thought it might be a good chance to take a collective deep breath and look at the opportunities presented by the turmoil that...
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
The market is wrestling with the sheer size of the numbers of new cases (which are growing quickly) and the second derivative that shows the most worrisome countries are starting to see a slowdown in the rate of infections. Compared to...
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Monday, March 16, 2020
While we are sure to see many bad headlines over the course of the next few weeks to couple months, we do believe that world is now acting out of an abundance of caution. Below is the live chart of reported CV cases. You, of course,...
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Monday, March 9, 2020
We started writing this on Friday, wanting to share a few additional bits of info on top of what we had already shared over the past couple of weeks. Thanks to a busy workload, we never were able to hit the send button – and...
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Monday, March 2, 2020
Before we get to a brief commentary for the day, we wanted to share two important notes with those of you who are clients of MPCA: TAX DOCUMENTS The final versions of most tax documents from Fidelity are now available. If you’re...
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Friday, February 28, 2020
It’s been a rough week in the market, to say the least. In light of that fact, we thought we would send out this update ahead of our normal Monday post, looking here at some new numbers and where we think things might be headed...
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Monday, February 24, 2020
Let’s take a look at the updated numbers on Coronavirus and the effects on the global stock markets and economies. Today’s significant downturn in the markets was largely attributed to virus scares, so it’s worth...
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Monday, January 27, 2020
I first want to start with a solemn RIP Kobe! Clearly a great basketball player, but from most accounts, a great person and very giving of his time and talents. He will be greatly missed, as will those who perished alongside him in...
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Monday, January 13, 2020
Happy New Year! We hope your holiday season was a great one. As we are nearly two weeks into the new decade, the markets are up but nobody feels good about it. Money is being pulled out of stocks and put into bonds and money markets....
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Amidst the rancor of impeachment, it may be hard to believe but Congress did actually pass a bill shortly before Christmas – and a significant one at that. You may have already seen or heard details about the SECURE Act....
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Monday, December 23, 2019
When you see someone on TV in some sort of “expert” role, giving their thoughts and opinions, it’s natural to think their comments should be given extra weight. It certainly seems reasonable on the face of it, because...
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Monday, December 9, 2019
Sometimes, okay oftentimes, we find there are people who can express a topic better than we can. On occasion, we hand over the mic and simply let them speak for themselves, and this week will be one of those times. This past week, we...
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Tuesday, November 26, 2019
With so many renderings of what the new Tesla truck was going to look like, it was easy to get excited about it. This first image is a pretty cool “futuristic” looking truck that could be very functional and good for the...
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Monday, November 4, 2019
Most of us are familiar with the old market adage ‘Sell in May and go away.’ Running from May to the end of October, it does work from time to time. It doesn’t hurt that those months include the September and October...
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas…those are the dates most of us are starting to look towards in the months ahead. However, another important set of dates comes at us later this week. Running from November 1 – December...
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Monday, October 28, 2019
The S&P is hitting an all-time high today, which inevitably leads to plenty of questions – including both, “Should we invest more?” and “Should we take money off the table?” Since going with your gut...
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Friday, October 25, 2019
How do you mess up a business where you really only have one legitimate competitor? One way is by skimping on engineering and cutting corners to keep the money train flowing. The company I am referring to is Boeing. Clearly such a...
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Monday, October 14, 2019
For weeks now we have used the term “cautiously optimistic,” and we have fielded a few questions recently that leave us knowing that many of you are paying attention to this fact. What does this mean and why do we continue...
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Monday, October 7, 2019
Last week was another example of why we don’t ascribe too much emphasis on the day-to-day movements of the markets. While the ISM numbers were bad and certainly the job numbers are slowing, we are not seeing a complete...
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Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Before I get into our regular Monday (I mean Wednesday) piece, I wanted to bring up some timely data that we need to be paying attention to. Remember, while we’ve been saying that we are cautiously optimistic, we are also...
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Monday, September 23, 2019
As we always say, many things that happen daily tend to be noise, and are simply a distraction from our financial goals. These distractions will often cause us to act on (or more likely react to) current events that likely would not...
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Monday, September 16, 2019
In case you missed it, half of the Saudi Arabian oil production literally went up in flames this past weekend. What subsequently went up were oil prices, at one point to the tune of about 20%. Seems like a lot, but we’ll argue...
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Thursday, September 12, 2019
It’s that time of year. Pumpkin spice, back to school, college football, leaves falling in your yard…and Medicare’s fall annual election period (AEP)! Wait…what? Did we just lump the joys of college football...
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Monday, September 9, 2019
Last week we discussed how our emotions will usually get in our way of making good decisions regarding our money. If we look at the newspaper or evening news, it looks like the world is falling apart and it’s time to hunker down...
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Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Before we dive into our normal commentary, please let us wish all of you students, parents, and teachers a wonderful return to school this week. We are incredibly grateful to each of you educators out there, especially the many that we...
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Monday, August 26, 2019
Here is a follow up to last week’s rant about negative interest rates and what it means for governments and savers (In case you missed it, here’s a link to last week’s missive). This week I want to show you a chart...
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Monday, August 19, 2019
The market is sufficiently scared of things that go bump in the night. Say what? You know, scary things like inverted yield curves and negative interest rates. Exactly the kind of stuff you read about as a kid in “Where the Wild...
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Monday, August 12, 2019
We spared you any charts last week, so we will make up for that a bit this time around! As volatility has returned over the past couple of weeks, it has reminded us of the importance of zooming out and looking at the bigger and broader...
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Monday, August 5, 2019
My son has a book called “Don’t Push the Button.” He loves it! In it, Larry has one rule, “Whatever you do, don’t push the button.” Needless to say, what does a 2-1/2-year-old want to do when he...
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
For those of you (like me) who enjoy Shark Week, catch it on the Discovery Channel. If you’re not into Shark Week, I might suggest that we stay aware of the markets, because they can be a bit like this annual TV ritual that...
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Monday, July 22, 2019
One of the oldest theories of the market is the Dow Theory. It was developed in the early 1900s by Charles Dow (He also developed the Dow Jones Index and was the original editor of the Wall Street Journal). The theory basically says...
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Monday, July 15, 2019
As we kick off earnings reporting season on the heels of the end of Q2, we have to remember that earnings are important, but only as they relate to expectations. The stock market is a discounting mechanism, and it sets those...
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Monday, July 8, 2019
Let’s take a break this week from talking about markets. After all, we all know there is more to your financial picture than just your investment accounts. That’s why we are a “planning-centric” firm, and...
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Monday, July 1, 2019
June was the best June since 1938 in the US markets, as the headlines have been quick to point out. What is a bit of concern is – in the words of one of our favorites, Mark Twain – “History doesn’t repeat itself...
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Monday, June 17, 2019
We have talked about the risks to the markets many times over the last few months, but we have also mentioned that there also areas that look good to us. I want to mention a couple specific stocks (not that we own either of them...
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019
There’s the old saying, that when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In this case when the only tool that you have is ‘tariff,’ that’s what you use, even if the problem is...
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Monday, June 3, 2019
After a rough May for the markets, we’re happy to see June get here. We started May with hitting a new market high, and then came the tweets and another round of “he said, he said” with China. I don’t think...
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Friday, May 24, 2019
We would first like to wish everyone a happy Memorial Day as we remember those who gave the ultimate sacrifice so that we could have the freedoms that we enjoy today. Freedoms don’t come easy, nor do we always agree with the ways...
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Monday, May 13, 2019
First, and most importantly, a belated Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms reading this. We hope you were well-celebrated over the weekend, as we deeply admire the role you play. While the sun has been shining bright here in...
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
We are entering the heart of earnings season this week as some of the biggest companies will be reporting their Q1 earnings. Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon are among the bigger ones reporting in the next couple days. Earnings...
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
What Goes Up Must Come Down? From one of the worst quarters at the end of 2018 to one of the best quarters in 1Q 2019. Markets around the world rejoiced when the Federal Reserve “decided” to take its foot off the gas...
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Monday, February 11, 2019
We’re in the midst of “Snowmaggedon” here in the Puget Sound, but the markets haven’t ground to a halt like this region has. Nor have corporations, trade negotiators, lawmakers, or the government...
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
The market got its wish. A short, scary liquidity driven sell-off in the market and the FED backed off. A FED that has always said they are not affected by the markets and are driven solely by their two mandates. Stable prices (keep...
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Monday, January 28, 2019
We have our first FED meeting of 2019 this week, where we will see if the FED is going to continue its “dovish” stance that it took toward the end of last year, or if it will continue to back off now that the market is...
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
Happy New Year! We hope this year is off to a great start for you, and that your holidays were delightful. As for the markets, they can say yes to the former, but certainly not the latter. In fact, we just had the worst Christmas Eve...
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Thursday, December 20, 2018
It’s been awhile since we’ve written – largely because we have been trying to patiently observe and see where these volatile markets are taking us. To be sure, these past few weeks have not been easy for investors,...
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Monday, October 29, 2018
In the investment world there are many sayings like “Bulls make money, bears make money – and pigs get slaughtered,” “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News,” and of course “Buy low and sell high.” The...
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Friday, October 26, 2018
On Monday, we looked finished our brief two-part look at how we expect to achieve higher returns given low expected returns in the S&P 500 looking forward. Diversification in different asset classes was one answer and tactical...
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Monday, October 22, 2018
On Friday, we started to answer the questions of how should one respond to what we shared regarding expected future returns in the market and try to make money in the face of these forecasts. As we mentioned then, we see two key themes...
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Friday, October 19, 2018
As we promised on Monday, we are going to continue the conversation around current market conditions and portfolio construction through a short series of follow-on posts. Thank you to all who read and commented on last Monday’s...
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Monday, October 15, 2018
At MPCA, we look at a lot of charts…no seriously, it’s a LOT. We typically spare you from having to “nerd out” with us, but sometimes a “picture (or a chart) is worth a thousand words.” In those...
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Monday, October 15, 2018
Sell in May and go Away – Has it worked this year? One of the most famous sayings in the investment world is “Sell in May and go Away”, and like many generalizations, it works more than it doesn’t. That saying...
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Monday, September 24, 2018
As readers are fully aware, the financial press - and many investors – are presently engaged in a vigorous bull-versus-bear debate concerning the sustainability of economic strength and market upside. Certainly, getting it...
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Stocks finished the week with gains, as shifting signals on potential protectionist trade policies between the U.S. and China seemed to drive investor sentiment. Large-cap stocks outpaced small-caps, with companies in the...
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Monday, August 20, 2018
Last week essentially marked the end of the second quarter earnings reporting season, and once again, results were very impressive. Total earnings for the S&P 500 bellwethers are up over 25% on over 10% higher revenues. This is the...
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Major market benchmarks ended decidedly mixed last week after another round of trade disputes, albeit from an unexpected direction, led to a sharp pullback on Friday. In retaliation for Turkey’s jailing of an American pastor,...
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
While the Facebook earnings letdown gathers all the headlines today (at least amongst the few that apparently still use Facebook!), there is encouraging news currently unfolding below the surface this earnings seasons. With nearly a...
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Before we start with the weekly commentary, we want to draw your attention to our Quarterly Market Commentary that we posted to the Blog on Friday. This piece takes a quick look back at what we've seen as the year hits the 50-yard line...
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Friday, July 13, 2018
First Half of 2018 and looking forward to the rest of the year The Market Giveth and the Market Taketh Away The first half of the year has been one of feast or famine in the markets. With equity markets up early in the year followed by...
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Monday, July 9, 2018
Markets ignited a display of volatility fireworks but managed a gain for the holiday-shortened week. Trading volumes were predictably low, especially on the two days surrounding the July 4th holiday, with markets closing early on...
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Monday, July 2, 2018
It’s that week of the year where it is culturally appropriate to blow stuff up. This leads us to want to make some crafty analogy between fireworks and the markets, but those analogies just seem cheaper than the fireworks you can...
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Monday, June 25, 2018
A few months ago, he was “Little Rocket Man.” Two weeks ago, he was sitting face to face with the President of the United States. He, of course, is Kim Jung Un – leader/dictator/human rights ignorer of North Korea....
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Monday, June 11, 2018
As many of our readers are aware, the first quarter of 2018 earnings season turned out to be very strong, with earnings growth reaching a seven year high and solid, broad momentum on the revenue side. To quickly recap, the quarter is...
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Monday, June 4, 2018
Summer is almost here, yet the headlines had a bit of a Halloween feel this past week. Stocks finished the week modestly higher after quickly recovering from a post-Memorial Day sell-off amid worries about Italian politics and the...
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Friday, May 18, 2018
Our office is moving two weeks from today from Two Union Square to a new space in the Columbia Center. A small tech company named Apple is taking over our existing floor, necessitating a move down the street.Our new address (physical...
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Thursday, April 19, 2018
Many of our readers are fully aware that earnings reporting season for the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18) is now underway. While it is hard to believe the “New Year” is already 25% gone, here we are, hoping for spring in...
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Monday, April 2, 2018
Among the concerns rising up to bedevil the markets lately, the chief culprit is most likely trade tariff rhetoric and concerns of a trade war. Including the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law in June 1930 and blamed by...
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Monday, March 26, 2018
It has now been two months since equity markets peaked on January 26th. The question on the mind of every investor is whether this is a correction within an ongoing bull market (good) or the start of a bear market (bad). Clearly,...
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Monday, March 12, 2018
The big news last week was an employment report that can only be described as stunning. Nonfarm payrolls increased a broad-based 313,000 in February, the biggest gain since July 2016 and well above the consensus of 205,000....
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Monday, March 5, 2018
Earnings for the final quarter of last year are mostly in the books, and as we have been reporting, the market aced the fourth quarter final exams. With impressive revenue momentum, positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions...
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Tuesday, February 20, 2018
We hope you enjoyed the long weekend, or for you parents and educators amongst us – we hope you are enjoying mid-winter break. Now that you are done cringing over replays of Fergie’s rendition of the National Anthem,...
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
I can probably count on one hand the number of times in 2017 that I received a news alert on my phone that was prompted by stock market movements. Last week, I needed all five fingers from that hand…and a couple toes…to...
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Monday, February 5, 2018
In spite of the long-overdue pullback in major markets – which continues even as we write this update, the latest global PMIs suggest that the global economy is in great shape and that the end of the global expansion is still...
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Tuesday, January 30, 2018
In Chinese philosophy, Yin and Yang are described as opposite forces that may actually be complementary and interdependent. Dark and light, fire and water, fear and greed are all part of Yin and Yang. One cannot exist without the other...
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Friday, January 26, 2018
After a bit of a hiatus in the writing department, we are back...and you’ll quickly realize it is Jeff writing here, as the topic is earnings! We hope your year is off to a great start. The equity markets certainly are. We have...
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Monday, December 11, 2017
Tax reform. Two minutes on Twitter and you’ll quickly realize these are two words that are eliciting two things: significant emotions and significant confusion. Two chambers of Congress are now reconciling two contrasting bills....
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Monday, December 4, 2017
Jeff is in Miami this week for a yearly compliance conference (tough to be there now, I’m sure). I (Chris) will be sitting in for this week’s commentary – and I’ve decided to elaborate on a topic that is third...
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Monday, November 13, 2017
Third quarter earnings season for 2017 is mostly in the books, so this morning we thought we would briefly summarize how things actually turned out. With 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting, the favorable sales and earnings...
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Monday, November 6, 2017
With over 400 (81%) of the S&P 500 companies having now reported and the third quarter earnings season mostly in the books, we wanted to take a few moments, admittedly with heavy hearts after the horrific events in Manhattan and Texas...
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Monday, October 23, 2017
In the long-term, earnings are what tend to drive the markets – interrupted by the occasional “black swan” or geopolitical surprise. Given the importance of earnings, let’s take a deep dive into how things are...
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Tuesday, October 3, 2017
In case you missed it, third quarter earnings season is quietly underway (which would portend that you likely did miss it 😊). Granted, only 16 of the S&P 500 member companies have weighed in so far, and the reporting onslaught will...
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Monday, September 11, 2017
Those investors that have worked with MPCA for any length of time are undoubtedly aware of our appreciation for the insights gleaned from the field of behavioral finance, which tries to research and understand issues of investor...
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Friday, September 8, 2017
Equifax, one of the nation’s largest credit reporting agencies, announced yesterday that it suffered a major cybersecurity breach. The breach is currently estimated to affect ~143 million U.S. consumers – nearly half of the...
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Monday, August 28, 2017
I saw a Facebook post the other day in which the author quipped a quick thanks to Millennials for creating a world where putting avocado on anything is acceptable. Well, that author and his Millennial friends just got a whole lot...
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Monday, August 14, 2017
Last week equity markets sold off on fears of nuclear war sparked by the rogue regime in North Korea. Thursday was particularly rough, at least in the context of the very low volatility environment we have been operating in for some...
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Tuesday, August 1, 2017
With second quarter (Q2) earnings season essentially at the midpoint, we thought a quick halftime report might be in order. Bear in mind, we have a ways to go in this reporting cycle, with more than 1000 companies ready to announce...
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Summer Doldrums or another Hot Summer From wildfires in the West to the FAANG’s on fire, so far this summer has been anything but slow. Throw in the latest tweet or clandestine meeting and we have the plot for our next book....
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Monday, July 17, 2017
As there really is not a market-moving theme to discuss this week (and we don't want to fill your inboxes with useless junk), we want to instead take this week to look at an important financial planning topic. After all, we do consider...
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Monday, July 10, 2017
Recently we commented on the shape of the yield curve, and why investors should pay attention to it (read blog here). Following an extended period of flattening, the yield curve steepened last week. Contributing to higher yields on...
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Monday, June 26, 2017
According to the good folks at Investopedia, the yield curve is a “line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates.” The most frequently reported...
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Monday, June 19, 2017
As a firm, we have a longstanding objection to using the S&P 500 as a performance benchmark for most investors. The reasons are too numerous to mention here, but we will enumerate just two for the purpose of brevity. First, while we...
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Monday, June 5, 2017
There has been a persistent valuation discrepancy between the U.S. equity market and international markets for some time now. The culprits have been relatively easy to identify, and while we hesitate to pick on Europe, we would...
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Tuesday, May 30, 2017
The recent “WannaCry” ransomware attack brought cybersecurity back to the forefront for many clients, and some may have a heightened interest in what we are doing to ensure your assets and your information is secure....
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Thursday, May 25, 2017
There are many ways to teach your children good money sense. You can fall back on stories of how you used to earn, save and spend money all those years ago. You can fill their heads with lessons on how important it is to be careful and...
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Monday, May 22, 2017
The impact of the energy market runs deep and wide across the geopolitical and financial world. You need to look no further than the local gas station to see the impact on your monthly budget. It’s no secret that oil is also a...
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Monday, May 15, 2017
Allow us, for the moment, to set aside North Korea and Jim Comey and take a quick look under the hood at some interesting economic data. Specifically, after what seems like an interminably long wait, we may finally be seeing...
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Monday, May 8, 2017
The French elections have come and gone, the expected candidate won, and all is right with the world. Except that the “far right” candidate of upheaval received about 35% of the vote. In France. The dissatisfaction of the...
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Monday, May 1, 2017
To the extent that one is a consumer of financial news services and websites, the first day of May marks the ringing of the bell for advice givers imploring investors to sell all of their equity holdings and retreat to the safety of...
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Thursday, April 27, 2017
2017 has started out as a pretty decent year in the markets, with the S&P 500 gaining about 5.5% and the Tech heavy Nasdaq up 9.8%. Bonds were up less than 1% for the quarter and Small Cap stocks were up a mere 2.24%. International...
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Monday, April 24, 2017
The United States is not the only place in the world seemingly divided between flyover country and urban elite enclaves. In the days and weeks leading up to the elections in France yesterday, fear gripped global equity markets that the...
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Monday, April 17, 2017
In a shortened holiday week (markets were closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday), the theme seemed to be “caution.” Light trading volumes, comments from President Trump, and a risk-off mentality combined to help...
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Monday, April 10, 2017
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Seattle, WA | April 10, 2017 Madison Park Capital Advisors is pleased to announce that Andrew Barfoot, CFP® has been authorized by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards (CFP Board) to use the...
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Monday, April 10, 2017
Major equity markets drifted last week, with smaller-cap shares trailing large-caps. The energy sector showed some strength at midweek, helped by signs of robust refinery demand and a rise in oil prices to their highest level in a...
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Monday, April 10, 2017
Today – April 10, 2017 – is the date our industry has had circled on its calendar for months. It was supposed to be the day that the new “DOL Fiduciary Rule” went into effect. Instead, this rule has been delayed...
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Monday, April 3, 2017
Equity markets enjoyed a comeback that erased some of the losses of the previous week, closing out the first quarter of 2017 with healthy gains. The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite Index was the only major index to recoup the entirety...
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Monday, March 27, 2017
For readers looking for a quick and pithy recap of the previous week, the above headline says it all. Tuesday marked the first time in months (109 trading days, to be exact) that the S&P 500 fell 1% or more. The decline came mainly...
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Equity markets at home and abroad rallied after the Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate target range on Wednesday and Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the U.S. economy. As was widely expected, the Federal...
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Monday, March 13, 2017
Major equity markets ended last week slightly lower than the previous one, with the S&P 500 index recording its first weekly decline since mid-January. Once again, smaller companies lagged their large-cap brethren, this time for the...
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Monday, March 6, 2017
Domestic equity markets ended flat to modestly higher despite an impressive rally on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed best for the week and for the month of February that ended on Tuesday. The widely-watched...
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Monday, February 27, 2017
Major markets meandered during last week’s holiday-shortened trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average won the index race and managed on Friday to eke out its 11th consecutive record daily close, an accomplishment not seen since...
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Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Four weeks in a row now the US equity markets have climbed. Last week, the S&P 500 added 1.5% - marking its fifth gain in the first seven weeks of 2017. In fact, the US equity markets have yet to log a daily decline in excess of 1% in...
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Monday, February 13, 2017
Major equity markets advanced further last week, leaving all but the small caps at new highs. To appreciate how “quiet” trading has been recently, consider that, according to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 began the...
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Monday, February 6, 2017
Greetings from a snowy Seattle! Having seen his shadow last Thursday, Punxsutawney Phil seems to be correct this year – at least here in the Pacific NW where the white stuff is covering all parts of the region. While the weather...
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Monday, January 30, 2017
Popular benchmarks made history last week in the face of renewed policy uncertainty. A midweek rally in response to positive earnings reports and expectations for faster economic growth led to the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally...
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Friday, January 27, 2017
2016 was a year that will go down in history as very unexpected. Stock markets around the world had the worst start to the year in modern history. Our markets started the first 6 weeks of the year down 10% – 15%, only to...
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Markets finished slightly lower for the previous trading week shortened by the Martin Luther King holiday. Investors kept close watch on Washington, D.C. for potential changes from the new administration in advance of Donald...
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Last week kicked off earnings reporting for the 4th quarter of 2016. Most equity markets fell slightly, with the S&P 500 returning -0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrials -0.4%. Equity returns appear to be normalizing after the first month...
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Monday, January 9, 2017
Equity markets rose for the first week of the New Year and began 2017 on a positive note, as investors cheered mildly bullish economic data and looked forward to healthier upcoming quarterly earnings reports. In a reversal of recent...
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Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Yes, 2017 is now upon us, but markets took some time off along with everyone else last week as they anticipated this New Year. While the financial media was fixated on the purely symbolic 20,000 threshold, the Dow Jones Industrial...
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Monday, December 19, 2016
Some may think with Christmas coming near, that this week’s title refers to what Santa has in store for you. Instead, it leads us into our weekly discussion on the financial markets. We’ll leave it to you and Santa to hash...
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Monday, December 12, 2016
The month-long rally since the US presidential election rolled along last week, helping to bring many popular market benchmarks to a series of record highs. The uptrend continued to favor small-caps over large-caps and lower P/E (price...
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Tuesday, December 6, 2016
This morning the financial news carried the headline that, once again, in spite of expectations of a dramatic market sell off due to yet another momentous vote (this time in Italy), resilient markets shrugged off the outcome and...
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Monday, November 28, 2016
Stocks gained for yet another post-election week, bringing all of the major indexes to a series of new highs. Several news organizations reported that on Monday stock markets achieved a “superfecta” for the first time in 17...
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Domestic equities continued their post-election rally, spurring most of the major benchmarks to all-time highs. Small-cap companies, which are typically more volatile, built on their lead for the year-to-date and performed best during...
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Stocks rallied as investors reassessed prospects for corporate earnings, economic growth, and inflation in the wake of the surprising victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. Gains varied widely depending on how...
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Tuesday, November 8, 2016
While we can’t answer that question, we do know that we will all know that answer on November 8th. We also know that many other important races will be determined on that date, including potentially the balance of power in the...
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Monday, November 7, 2016
Stocks fell for the week as heightened political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election cast a pall over the markets. By Friday, the S&P 500 Index had recorded its ninth consecutive daily decline, its longest losing streak since...
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Monday, October 31, 2016
Global equities were modestly lower this week, while interest rates around the world continued their recent strength. Major domestic benchmarks faced headwinds as investors continued to digest a stream of third-quarter earnings reports...
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Monday, October 17, 2016
Stocks lost ground for a second straight week as earnings season began with mixed results and a decrease in Chinese exports stoked fresh concerns about slowing global growth. Alcoa, batting in its traditional lead-off spot in the S&P...
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Last week the S&P 500 Index launched October and the fourth quarter of 2016 into negative territory, declining 0.60%, following the previous three weeks of gains. Monday began the week with tepid economic news. August construction...
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Monday, October 3, 2016
Global equities were little changed on the week as the markets digested a rally in oil prices and an increase in concern over the health of Germany’s largest lender. Here at home, the S&P 500 barely moved, both for the week and...
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Monday, September 26, 2016
Global equities traded up last week, with investors breathing a sigh of relief after important meetings of Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve rate-setters. The market took in stride the BOJ’s policy shift and the Fed’s...
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Monday, September 19, 2016
Global equities were mixed this past week, with markets continuing to focus on central bank policy – which appears to be reaching its effective limits in places like Europe and Japan. The S&P 500 Index was up a little over one...
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Monday, September 12, 2016
The events of the past few trading days confirm our contention that equity markets around the world remain overly dependent on the policy whims of central bankers. There is growing concern that extraordinarily accommodative monetary...
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Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Global equities rose slightly last week, although trading activity in domestic equity markets has been even more subdued than usual this summer. August saw the fourth-narrowest trading range since 1928, according to the Wall Street...
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Monday, August 29, 2016
Equity markets traded down slightly last week after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank will gradually raise short-term interest rates in the coming weeks or months ahead. A week ago, Bloomberg...
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Equity markets hovered near record-highs and were little changed last week as investors turn their attention to economic data as earnings season nears the end. Better-than-expected earnings and continued optimism the Federal Reserve...
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Monday, August 8, 2016
Domestic equities enjoyed a positive start to open the month of August. The S&P 500 index posted a 0.65% return for the week, mainly on the back of a strong monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls for July that came in at 255,000, which...
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Monday, July 25, 2016
Global equities edged higher this week despite another onslaught of horrific news, this time in Turkey and Germany. The market is preparing for the potential for looser monetary policy from the Bank of Japan next week and perhaps from...
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Monday, July 18, 2016
They keep pushing higher. What is “they” you might ask? You could easily answer: equity prices, stimulus measures, geopolitical disruptions, and investor sentiment – and you’d be correct on all fronts. All the...
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Friday, July 15, 2016
Coming off tumultuous start to the year, the second quarter was a whole lot about nothing; at least as far as the market indexes were concerned. The stock markets around the world rallied into the end of the June to post slight gains,...
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Monday, July 11, 2016
Last week the S&P 500 Index opened lower on Tuesday after the Independence Day holiday, but rallied for the rest of the week. The index posted a 1.33% return for the week and has gained 5.45% year-to-date as we start the second half of...
Read MoreWe hope you all had a wonderful 4th of July celebration…or you might say, a celebration of the 240th anniversary of a much more important “Brexit”! I saw reports in the Seattle Times today that fireworks accidents...
Read MoreHow many of us have heard the advice to “go sleep on it?” It’s a common refrain, designed to help avoid rash decisions, to let “cooler heads prevail,” and to draw out collective wisdom. The markets have...
Read MoreOur inboxes here at Madison Park Capital Advisors have been inundated today with emails from trusted economists, fund companies, and market commentators on the “Brexit” vote that took place yesterday. The results were...
Read MoreLast week was a tough one for the markets as global equities wrestled with the possibility that the United Kingdom may vote to leave the European Union this coming Thursday. The S&P 500 Index posted a negative 1.12% return. The widely...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 Index rallied through mid-week, helped along by dovish commentary from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, but cut those gains Thursday and Friday. The index posted a -0.44% return for the week and is essentially flat...
Read MoreMarkets made little headway last week, as a promising start was wiped out on Friday due to a stunningly weak employment report. The S&P 500 ended the month of May with a 1.79% return, which was the second strongest month so far in 2016...
Read MoreWe hope you all had a blessed Memorial Day. Before we get into market details, we first must say THANK YOU to those of you who have served this great nation. We especially thank those who have paid the ultimate price in standing up for...
Read MoreAs expected, in a market environment dominated by Fed speculation, the major news item of the week was contained in the minutes of the April Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) meeting. Specifically, members made it...
Read MoreLast week the S&P 500 Index rallied early, but losses on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday negated the early gains. The index posted a -0.44% return for the week and is down -0.77% through the first half of May. For the year, the index...
Read MoreEquity markets at home and abroad retreated last week as lingering signs of sluggish global economic growth moved many investors to the sidelines. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (“CBOE”) volatility index fell on the...
Read MoreGood afternoon on an incredibly beautiful day here in Seattle. For those of you not already on the golf course or strolling around Green Lake, here is our weekly update on the markets. Stocks fell globally at the end of April following...
Read MoreStocks are in the red today, following a week in which global equities posted gains, led by energy and commodity-sensitive companies. West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude prices rose to $43.39 from $39.77 a week ago, and...
Read MoreWhat started out negative turned to positive by the end of the day. Overnight, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude prices fell more than 6.5% after the Doha talks to reach an agreement to freeze oil output ended in failure. Then came...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 Index returned -1.15% this week, the worst weekly loss since early February. The S&P 500 Volatility Index soared over 17% as equity prices fell and volatility grew. The probability of a rate hike in April fell to 0%,...
Read MoreAnd the Music Keeps Playing… After the worst start to the year since 2008, the global stock markets staged an amazing reversal in March, thanks to the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks around the world coordinating monetary...
Read MoreFed chair Janet Yellen pushed back forcefully against a handful of Federal Open Market Committee members who called for a hike in the federal funds rate as early as April. Yellen said the Fed will proceed with caution given concerns...
Read MoreUS stocks ended the holiday-shortened week lower, breaking a streak of five weekly gains, as five members of the US Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee suggested that a rate hike could come as early as April. However, only two of...
Read MoreThis morning, the National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales in February dropped 7.1% to an annual rate of 5.08 million units, the lowest level since November. Last week, however, the S&P 500 continued its...
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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced an aggressive package of additional measures to ease monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday, causing equity markets around the world to rally. However, Mr. Draghi’s...
Read MoreFollowing the price of oil yet again, the S&P 500 ended the week auspiciously at 1999.99 (that is not a typo!) on Friday. The Dow saw its first close north of 17,000 since the first week of January. Not coincidentally, oil prices...
Read MoreOver the past several months, regular readers of our Monday morning updates have noticed that we have been spending a fair amount of time (and words!) discussing the changing landscape of risk in equity markets around the world. The...
Read MoreFollowing the lead of crude oil prices and their counterparts in Europe, U.S. equity markets have opened strongly today. This encouraging action, at least for the moment, comes on the heels of a solid 2.91% performance for the S&P 500...
Read MoreFinancial markets were closed yesterday in honor of the Presidents Day holiday. We hope you were able to take some time and give thanks for those who step up and serve in (and run for) this often thankless role. That said, if the...
Read MoreThe start of a new week is bringing the same old concerns that have bedeviled markets lately. Weakness in oil prices and continued concern about the global economy are dragging U.S. stocks lower again today, following overnight...
Read MoreEquity markets roared back in the last trading week of January, trimming loses on the S&P 500 to 5% for the year. In an unexpected move by the Bank of Japan, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda implemented negative interest rates for certain bank...
Read MoreStocks are off to a weak start this morning, running counter to the hopes raised by Friday’s strong rally. The culprit, again, seems to be weakness in oil prices. As a matter of fact, oil and equity prices have been strongly...
Read MoreAs Chris Featherstone reported last week in his annual review, the S&P 500 got off to a rocky start in the New Year, falling 5.91% for the first full trading week of 2016. The results actually equated to the worst opening week in US...
Read MoreAfter a tumultuous year, I am personally glad to see 2015 come to an end. We had too many friends, family and clients (whom we count as friends as well) become ill or pass long before they should have. Our hearts are heavy with the...
Read MoreToday’s market selloff is certainly not what we all had in mind as we wished each other a peaceful and prosperous New Year last week, at least as relates to the prosperity part of that greeting. Domestic equities are taking their...
Read MoreLast week was all about the Federal Reserve decision to increase interest rates above the 0.25 upper bound for the first time since 2008. Yields rose on both Monday and Tuesday as it became more evident that the Fed would increase...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 Index declined sharply last week as sinking crude oil prices precipitated fears of a credit contagion similar to the financial contagion spawned by the subprime mortgage industry collapse of 2007 and 2008. Specifically, the...
Read MoreMarkets endured an up-and-down week wrestling with uncertainty about whether the economy is strong enough to handle expected Fed rate hikes next week (December 16). In a reversal from last week, broader indexes edged up slightly, while...
Read MoreMarkets spent a rather quiet week celebrating the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Economic data, while not strong, were generally positive, and investors seem ready to embrace the increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise...
Read MoreIn a perhaps surprising development, U.S. equities rose sharply last week, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 3.3%, essentially erasing losses from the previous week. Investors were not intimidated by the horrific terrorist attacks in...
Read MoreMajor U.S. equity indices were down over 3.5% for the week as investors grumbled over increasing odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Readers may recall the now-infamous “taper tantrum” response to Fed talk of slowing down...
Read MoreMajor domestic equity market indices struggled today after a successful run last week, with investors weighing corporate earnings and potential higher interest rates after a strong October employment report. With more than 88% of the...
Read MoreMPCA Weekly Market Update (November 2, 2015) The S&P 500 index closed, just barely, in positive territory for the fifth straight week. The Dow Jones index and the S&P Midcap were up slightly as well, although the S&P Smallcap lagged...
Read MoreAs of this moment, we now have earnings results from 251 of the S&P 500 companies, with another twenty set to report after today’s market close. Total earnings for the companies that have reported thus far are up 2.6% on 1.4%...
Read MoreBig Cap Tech Earnings (and Central Bankers) to the RescueThe S&P 500 index closed in positive territory for the fourth straight week, returning a healthy 2.09%. Domestic equities have rallied strongly in the month of October, following...
Read MoreThe third quarter of 2015 was especially volatile and much of it to the down side. If you remember our 2014 year end commentary, we said that this year would be more volatile. With that being said, we certainly didn’t expect the...
Read MoreEarnings Season Kicks Off Equity returns were mostly positive last week as the S&P 500 closed up 0.9%. As has been the market’s custom recently, lackluster economic data led to the stocks rising in price. Investors continue to expect...
Read MoreAnother "Fed Rally"Equity markets posted their best weekly gain of the year as the Federal Reserve minutes, released on Thursday, showed caution over increasing interest rates. This caution persists amid a backdrop of an improving...
Read MoreIncreasing Cloudiness for the Rate Hike OutlookThose of us residing in the Great Northwest are used to forecasts that involve increasing clouds and decreasing visibility. Last week the financial markets had the opportunity to empathize...
Read MoreRetesting the LowsThe S&P 500 fell 1.35% last week, and is down sharply again this morning, as investors remained unconvinced that actions by the Federal Reserve have helped the economy. Even though second quarter U.S. GDP growth was...
Read MoreThe Fed Passes, for NowGlobal stocks made headway last week in the days leading up to the highly anticipated meeting of the Federal Reserve, but gave back the gains on Friday. The S&P 500 index closed flat for the week with a return of...
Read MoreWaiting on the FedEquity markets made up some ground last week, with trading made a day shorter by the Labor Day holiday. Volatility remained elevated as investors continued to look ahead to this Thursday’s announcement of the Fed’s...
Read MoreWelcome to the second edition of our Monthly Portfolio Commentary. You can find our inaugural edition from August, which highlights some core elements of our portfolio construct, on this blog as well. For those of you seeing this...
Read MoreGood News is Bad News (U.S.) and Bad News is Bad News (China)Welcome back from what we hope was a wonderful Labor Day weekend. As we think back beyond the long break, we think of more of the same in the markets. Last week brought more...
Read MoreIn Katherine Long's Seattle Times article published on September 5, 2015, our very own Chris Featherstone, CFP, ChFC provided some valuable insight on the important topic of what to do now that the State of Washington has authorized...
Read MoreAnyone that has experienced a long road trip with children has heard that question before, and we apologize for dredging up the memory. Investors were reminded of those anxious and impatient feelings over the past two weeks of trading....
Read MoreFlash Crash 2.0?It has been a wild ride this morning. Once again, China, prospective Fed tightening, oil prices and fear bordering on panic are depressing markets today. The major averages were down well over 6% a few minutes into the...
Read MoreChina, AgainThe S&P 500 eked out a gain for the week, returning 0.7%. Global stocks, however, had a much rougher go of it, with European stocks faring the worst, rattled by China’s surprise currency devaluation and the Eurozone’s...
Read MoreWelcome to our inaugural edition of our Monthly Portfolio Commentary. I should first remind you that we also have our Weekly Market Recap that discusses what happened last week in the world and the markets across the globe, from time...
Read MoreMore Worries, and a Monday Bounce The S&P 500 fell 1.18% for the week as investors became increasingly concerned that interest rates will soon rise. Year-to-date, the S&P has returned 2.14%, trades at a price/earnings ratio of 18.34,...
Read MoreEarnings Not Great, But Good Enough – For Now Equity markets rebounded from last week’s losses amid positive economic data and mixed earnings reports. Annualized gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.3% in the second quarter and a...
Read MoreLast week brought earnings reports from a group of companies that investors consider to be signifiers of the state of the global economy, and the equity markets did not like what they saw. Week three of earnings season brought...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best week since March, rising 2.4% on the back of strong domestic corporate earnings and headlines that Greece struck a short term “Band-Aid deal” with its creditors. Earnings season ramped up as several large...
Read MoreWe consider ourselves to be social guys...but with social media we have been a little slower on the uptake! However, the wait is now over - as Madison Park Capital Advisors is now officially on both Facebook and LinkedIn (we may...
Read MoreThree issues have bedeviled the equity markets over the past several weeks, and the news on all three has been encouraging enough to allow for at least a sigh of relief. First, the Federal Reserve’s decision in mid-June to keep the...
Read MoreWe close the first half of 2015 with a lot of volatility and concerns about whether Greece will stay in the Euro or if it will go a different route. As we have said so many times, Greece is a pretty small player in the global picture...
Read MoreLast week the markets were preoccupied with the debt situation in Greece, and they will be this week as well. This morning brings the surprise resignation of Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, despite a victory for his...
Read MoreA sluggish week in the equity markets had the feel of the beginnings of summer and the approaching July 4th holiday. Last week’s 0.37% slide took the S&P 500 index into negative territory for the month of June. The index currently sits...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 finished up 0.12% for the week, but was limited during its final trading session. In a surprise move Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) walked away from talks with Greece after the IMF signaled a deep divide in...
Read MoreLast week the U.S. equity market represented by the S&P 500 gave back a fair amount of its gains from the previous month. While the index had a positive month in May, increasing 1.29%, last week the index slid as it returned -0.65% to...
Read MoreEquity markets retreated during the Memorial Day shortened trading week. Concerns over Greece’s ability to complete a deal and avert its exit from the Eurozone, as well as interest rate worries here in the U.S., weighed on markets. The...
Read MoreEquity markets had an uneventful week, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she still expects to raise rates this year if the economy continues to strengthen. However, she made it clear that the pace of increases will be gradual,...
Read MoreLast week brought some mildly encouraging results for the first quarter earnings season, and the S&P 500 was able to close at a new all-time high for the index at 2,122. Before the 1Q earnings season started, consensus analyst earnings...
Read MoreLast week, U.S. and European stocks rebounded on the monthly U.S. employment report after global markets had slumped on uncertainty over the UK general election and Greece’s future in the Eurozone. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet...
Read MoreLast week the equity markets closed out April and began a new month on Friday. Borrowing a phrase from Janet Yellen, the markets appear to be “data-dependent”. There were rallies on some days that featured disappointing economic data,...
Read MoreOne of the occupational hazards of being in the investment and wealth management business is the necessity of following financial headlines from day to day, and we have not been able to figure out a way to avoid having to do so. We...
Read MoreWe look back at all the things that happened in the financial world in 2014 and it’s a mixed bag. On the one hand you had the market finishing nears its all-time highs on both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. At the same...
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